BIBLIOTágora el blog de Biblioteconomía y Documentación, en el que no se habla de Biblioteconomía y Documentación… sólo: "El ruido de las carcajadas pasa. La fuerza de los razonamientos queda"

25 gener 2011

El sesgo de participación en el sistema electoral español

Filed under: Política,Sociedad — anpoto @ 18:02 pm

 

 

De acuerdo con numerosos estudios empíricos y cualitativos, las elites gobernantes de la transición española manipularon el sistema electoral para asegurarse una victoria en las primeras elecciones democráticas, celebradas en junio de 1977. Esta manipulación política pretendía que la combinación de los diferentes elementos del sistema electoral deparara unos efectos favorables a los resultados electorales del partido de Adolfo Suárez (Unión de Centro Democrático, UCD). Así, las elites salientes pretendían maximizar su representación en las primeras elecciones democráticas a partir de la información que poseían y, a su vez, que los partidos de la oposición apoyasen el sistema electoral que había de regir las elecciones al Congreso. 

 Las decisiones relacionadas con la creación del sistema electoral español estuvieron acompañadas por un conflicto entre las expectativas de los actores implicados. Sin embargo, no todos los actores partían de una situación similar: la oposición poseía en aquellos momentos la legitimidad democrática pero su fuerza no era global, ya que los actores más resistentes al cambio aún poseían el poder y marcaban la agenda política. De hecho, el diseño del sistema electoral en España encaja perfectamente con los supuestos de herestética electoral, esto es, «una manipulación directa de la estructura política en beneficio propio » (Riker, 1986). Siguiendo una estrategia de no negociación con respecto al sistema electoral, las elites gobernantes diseñaron los componentes electorales a su favor e intentaron anticipar el futuro que más les favorecía electoralmente. Como consecuencia, el sistema electoral no entró en la palestra de las negociaciones ni fue moneda de cambio para conciliar estrategias partidistas.

Desde el punto de vista político, pues, cabe analizar las consecuencias de la andadura institucional del sistema electoral español y, en especial, examinar los efectos partidistas generados en las nueve elecciones celebradas desde 1977.

La literatura existente ha mostrado que, en efecto, existe en el sistema electoral español un sesgo de prorrateo. Este sesgo persigue efectos sistémicos que benefician los intereses rurales y/o conservadores sobre los urbanos y/o progresistas y, asimismo, provoca que los partidos de centro-derecha (que concentran su apoyo electoral en las primeras zonas) constaten claros beneficios en contraste con los partidos de centro-izquierda (con apoyos más amplios en las segundas zonas). La literatura determina que este sesgo es crucial para entender la victoria de UCD en 1977 y 1979, y que sus características y consecuencias han permanecido intactas desde entonces con más o menos intensidad. Hasta donde llega mi conocimiento, los estudios realizados sólo se han centrado en analizar el sesgo de prorrateo y las consecuencias que ha producido en los distintos escenarios.[…] Por Toni Rodon i Casarramona (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

(Acceso al texto completo)

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